June 11, 2026
Iran peace deal probability
4%
↓ falling

US and Iran strike each other for second day as ceasefire collapses

Key Factors

Iran Peace Deal Analysis for June 11, 2026

The US launched strikes on Iranian targets Wednesday and Thursday. The Pentagon confirmed a second round of attacks early Thursday morning. Iran responded by targeting 18 US airbases across the Gulf and attacking American ships in the region. Tehran also closed the Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping lane for global oil supplies.

Trump abandoned restraint. He threatened Iran with more strikes if they don't move faster on a deal. He told reporters the US will "negotiate with bombs" if needed and may "keep going" with attacks. Defense Secretary Hegseth used nearly identical language. Trump also claimed a secret US military operation moved oil through the Strait despite Tehran's closure. This statement undercuts his own negotiating position by suggesting the blockade is not as serious as Iran claims.

Trump keeps saying a deal is close. Yet he is ordering strikes that make negotiations harder. Iran rejected talks after the Lebanon ceasefire fell apart. Both sides are now using military attacks as leverage in negotiations. Each round of strikes hardens the other side's position rather than breaking it.

Neither side is retreating. Trump's threats of more bombing campaigns are more likely to trigger Iranian retaliation than concessions. A deal within 30 days would require both sides to shift course dramatically. Nothing in today's headlines suggests either is willing to do so.

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