Iran Peace Deal Probability Archive: All Daily Estimates
Every day since we started tracking, with the probability, trend direction, and headline. Click any date for the full analysis and source articles.
| Date | ProbabilityProb. | Trend | Headline |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-16 | 3% | falling | Iran rejects Trump, keeps Hormuz closed as fighting spreads |
| 2026-08-15 | 4% | falling | Iran hardliner shift and Trump's Hormuz claim widen gulf as ceasefire expires |
| 2026-08-14 | 6% | falling | US blockade hardens as Iran and Trump clash over Hormuz and war reparations |
| 2026-08-13 | 8% | falling | Iran denies ceasefire extension; Trump and Tehran clash over Hormuz control |
| 2026-08-12 | 14% | rising | Pakistan sees opening; shipping attacks and reparations row cloud talks |
| 2026-08-11 | 12% | falling | Trump demands Iran reparations as 60-day window narrows |
| 2026-08-10 | 18% | falling | Trump says US only semi-negotiating as Iran hardens Hormuz demands |
| 2026-08-09 | 25% | falling | Iran demands US military withdrawal and Hormuz control; deal talks stall |
| 2026-08-08 | 32% | falling | Hormuz deal advances but Iran demands US ship ban, exposing core gap |
| 2026-08-07 | 35% | falling | Iran-Oman Hormuz deal advances but excludes US ships; shipping industry balks |
| 2026-08-06 | 42% | rising | Iran, Oman near Hormuz deal as Trump claims progress but mistrust lingers |
| 2026-08-05 | 28% | rising | Trump says Hormuz deal is coming soon. Iran says talks aren't happening. |
| 2026-08-04 | 18% | falling | Trump's 48-hour ultimatum collapses as Iran denies talks even began |
| 2026-08-03 | 35% | falling | Trump claims deal, Iran denies it; talks resume Monday with skepticism high |
| 2026-08-02 | 42% | rising | Trump halts strikes after Iran agrees to deal framework; details unclear |
| 2026-08-01 | 2% | falling | Trump loses faith in Iran deal as war spreads to Strait of Hormuz |
| 2026-07-31 | 3% | falling | Gaza Board declares historic deal as Iran war escalates past ceasefire |
| 2026-07-30 | 4% | falling | US launches heavy strikes after Iran ends brief ceasefire |
| 2026-07-29 | 8% | falling | Iran fires missiles at US troops, ending ceasefire pause |
| 2026-07-28 | 12% | falling | Iran denies talks while US pauses strikes; Hormuz still closed |
| 2026-07-27 | 14% | rising | US pause offers opening, but Khamenei ties deal to Israel-Lebanon terms |
| 2026-07-26 | 8% | rising | US halts strikes after two weeks; Iran, Oman explore Hormuz reopening |
| 2026-07-25 | 1% | stable | Trump threatens bigger strikes as Iran rejects ceasefire and hits neighbors |
| 2026-07-24 | 1% | stable | Trump threatens Iran infrastructure; ceasefire dead after 12 nights of strikes |
| 2026-07-23 | 1% | falling | US launches 12th night of strikes; Trump threatens infrastructure attacks |
| 2026-07-22 | 2% | rising | Mediators push 10-day ceasefire as US and Iran trade strikes for tenth night |
| 2026-07-21 | 1% | stable | Tenth night of US strikes; Iran attacks tankers as ceasefire collapses |
| 2026-07-20 | 1% | stable | US strikes Iran for ninth night as Hormuz blockade threat looms; peace deal collapses |
| 2026-07-19 | 1% | stable | US launches eighth night of strikes; Iran vows retaliation after two soldiers killed |
| 2026-07-18 | 1% | stable | Seventh night of strikes targets Iranian infrastructure as Hormuz becomes war's epicenter |
| 2026-07-17 | 1% | stable | Six nights of US strikes leave Iran peace process in ruins |
| 2026-07-16 | 1% | stable | Peace deal collapses as Trump escalates strikes and blockade |
| 2026-07-15 | 1% | stable | Iran pulls from peace deal as US resumes blockade and strikes |
| 2026-07-14 | 1% | falling | Pentagon strikes Iran for third night; Trump vows Hormuz control |
| 2026-07-13 | 3% | falling | Iran expands attacks on Gulf after US strikes; diplomacy labeled futile |
| 2026-07-12 | 5% | falling | US and Iran escalate strikes as Hormuz chokes; talks limp on |
| 2026-07-11 | 8% | rising | Trump keeps door cracked open, but strikes continue near Hormuz |
| 2026-07-10 | 2% | rising | Trump declares Iran ceasefire dead; military exchanges intensify near Hormuz |
| 2026-07-09 | 1% | falling | Trump declares ceasefire over; US and Iran trade strikes for second day |
| 2026-07-08 | 3% | falling | US and Iran exchange strikes; ceasefire collapses after Hormuz attacks |
| 2026-07-07 | 8% | falling | Iran attacks tankers in Hormuz as Trump warns of escalation |
| 2026-07-06 | 12% | falling | Iran's new regime tightens Hormuz grip as funeral mourning ends; talks dormant |
| 2026-07-05 | 18% | falling | Iran's new leader faces hardliner pressure as funeral pauses fragile ceasefire |
| 2026-07-04 | 22% | falling | Khamenei's death halts Iran talks as Tehran warns against attack during funeral |
| 2026-07-03 | 38% | rising | Iran pauses talks for Khamenei funeral; Hormuz fee plan emerges as opening |
| 2026-07-02 | 35% | rising | Qatar reports progress in US-Iran talks despite mutual denials and threats |
| 2026-07-01 | 28% | falling | Iran rebuffs US envoys in Qatar as both sides dig in on Hormuz terms |
| 2026-06-30 | 32% | rising | Trump sends envoys to Qatar as Iran denies agreeing to talks |
| 2026-06-29 | 18% | rising | US and Iran agree to pause strikes but clash over what it means |
| 2026-06-28 | 5% | falling | Second day of strikes erases ceasefire as US, Iran blame each other |
| 2026-06-27 | 8% | falling | US and Iran trade strikes; ceasefire collapses into tit-for-tat escalation |
| 2026-06-26 | 24% | falling | Iran attacks ships in Hormuz as nuclear deal framework frays |
| 2026-06-25 | 28% | rising | Trump demands toll-free strait while Tehran denies nuclear concessions |
| 2026-06-24 | 22% | falling | Nuclear inspections deadlock, Congress rejects war as talks fray |
| 2026-06-23 | 38% | falling | US eases oil sanctions, but nuclear inspections and Israel strikes cloud deal |
| 2026-06-22 | 42% | rising | Talks yield 60-day roadmap despite Trump threats and Iranian walkout |
| 2026-06-21 | 35% | rising | Vance arrives in Switzerland as Iran blocks Strait, Israel strikes resume |
| 2026-06-20 | 28% | falling | Deal signed but Israel balks; Swiss talks stall as sides clash on terms |
| 2026-06-19 | 32% | falling | US-Iran ceasefire signed but follow-up talks collapse as both sides trade blame |
| 2026-06-18 | 68% | falling | Trump signs Iran deal, but nuclear and Israeli terms remain unresolved |
| 2026-06-17 | 72% | falling | Ceasefire signed but peace deal stalls on Israel, nuclear terms |
| 2026-06-16 | 82% | rising | Trump and Iran sign ceasefire deal; Israel and nuclear details still disputed |
| 2026-06-15 | 78% | rising | US-Iran ceasefire deal announced; signing scheduled for June 19 in Geneva |
| 2026-06-14 | 48% | rising | Trump says Sunday signing; Iran says no. Both sides keep talking. |
| 2026-06-13 | 42% | rising | Pakistan broker says deal text finalized; both sides still dispute core terms |
| 2026-06-12 | 28% | rising | Trump cancels strikes, claims deal near as Iran denies agreement |
| 2026-06-11 | 4% | falling | US and Iran strike each other for second day as ceasefire collapses |
| 2026-06-10 | 8% | falling | Helicopter downed, US strikes back; Trump still claims deal in days |
| 2026-06-09 | 11% | rising | Trump claims progress as Israel, Iran trade heaviest strikes in months |
| 2026-06-08 | 6% | falling | Day 100: Missiles over Gulf as Trump freezes assets, Iran rejects terms |
| 2026-06-07 | 9% | rising | Missiles fly as Iran, US blame each other for ceasefire collapse |
| 2026-06-06 | 8% | falling | US and Iran trade missile fire as officials declare talks deadlocked |
| 2026-06-05 | 12% | rising | Markets cling to hope as Iran and Hezbollah reject ceasefire terms |
| 2026-06-04 | 6% | falling | Iran escalates attacks on Kuwait as US-Iran talks remain suspended |
| 2026-06-03 | 8% | falling | Ceasefire collapses as US, Iran escalate strikes; talks suspended |
| 2026-06-02 | 15% | falling | Iran breaks off talks over regional strikes as Trump pushes revised terms |
| 2026-06-01 | 28% | falling | Trump revises deal terms as fighting resumes in Gulf, Iran trust erodes |
| 2026-05-31 | 42% | rising | Trump weighs tougher terms as Iran deal framework hangs on his decision |
| 2026-05-30 | 32% | falling | Trump delays final call on Iran deal as ceasefire framework waits for approval |
| 2026-05-29 | 48% | rising | US and Iran clinch tentative ceasefire deal, but Trump's signature remains uncertain |
| 2026-05-28 | 12% | falling | Fresh US strikes on Iran collapse ceasefire as deal talks stall over core terms |
| 2026-05-27 | 18% | falling | Ceasefire unravels as US resumes strikes; Iran vows retaliation |
| 2026-05-26 | 28% | falling | U.S. strikes Iranian targets as negotiators gather; ceasefire claims questioned |
| 2026-05-25 | 58% | falling | Negotiators agree on framework but Trump pumps brakes, citing no urgency |
| 2026-05-24 | 62% | rising | Trump says Iran deal largely done, but Tehran warns major gaps persist |
| 2026-05-23 | 24% | falling | Nuclear row deepens as US prepares fresh strikes, mediators race against time |
| 2026-05-21 | 26% | rising | Trump in no hurry on Iran deal as Netanyahu tensions rise over terms |
| 2026-05-20 | 22% | falling | Trump holds fire as Iran signals openness, but deep gaps remain on terms |
| 2026-05-19 | 28% | rising | Trump postpones Iran strike as talks resume, but US rejects Tehran's proposal |
| 2026-05-18 | 6% | falling | Trump escalates threats as Iran ceasefire talks collapse into military standoff |
| 2026-05-17 | 8% | falling | Trump threatens 'Operation Sledgehammer' as Iran, US abandon negotiation posture |
| 2026-05-16 | 12% | rising | Lebanon ceasefire holds but Iran rejects US terms; Hormuz tensions spike |
| 2026-05-15 | 4% | falling | Ship seizures near Hormuz escalate as Trump-Iran diplomacy collapses into military posturing |
| 2026-05-14 | 5% | falling | Iran vows defiance as Trump extends ultimatum; talks remain functionally dead |
| 2026-05-13 | 6% | falling | Trump rejects Iran proposal as ceasefire enters critical failure phase |
| 2026-05-12 | 8% | falling | Trump's 'life support' language signals ceasefire collapse as Iran digs in |
| 2026-05-11 | 16% | falling | Trump rejects Iran offer; gap widens as Hormuz blockade hardens positions |
| 2026-05-10 | 32% | rising | Month-long ceasefire holds but Iran deflects on deal, messaging suggests prolonged stalemate |
| 2026-05-09 | 28% | falling | US fires on tankers as Iran delays response, pushing deal into uncertainty |
| 2026-05-08 | 38% | falling | Ceasefire frays as US and Iran exchange fire despite deal framework talks |
| 2026-05-07 | 52% | rising | Iran reviewing US peace proposal as both sides inch toward one-page deal memo |
| 2026-05-06 | 42% | rising | Trump halts strikes as Iran reviews deal, but coercion clouds durable consensus |
| 2026-05-05 | 12% | falling | Ceasefire fragments as Iran tests US restraint in Hormuz corridor |
| 2026-05-04 | 19% | rising | Iran's peace bid stalls as US military operations undermine diplomatic window |
| 2026-05-03 | 14% | falling | Negotiations stall as Trump dismisses Iran plan; no counter-offer signals talks in limbo |
| 2026-05-02 | 18% | falling | Trump rejects Iran proposal as mutual demands widen; diplomacy persists but stalled |
| 2026-05-01 | 22% | falling | Khamenei's defiant stance hardens as Trump blockade strategy leaves little room for compromise |
| 2026-04-30 | 28% | rising | Ceasefire holds but Trump's nuclear demands block Iran's phased path forward |
| 2026-04-29 | 24% | rising | Trump considers Iran's sequencing offer as nuclear sticking point persists |
| 2026-04-28 | 18% | rising | Iran's Hormuz proposal meets swift US rejection; mediators seek revised terms |
| 2026-04-27 | 12% | rising | Trump's Envoy Pullback Deepens Impasse as Iran Seeks Alternative Mediators |
| 2026-04-26 | 8% | falling | Trump envoys pulled from Pakistan as Iran-US preconditions deadlock deepens |
| 2026-04-25 | 24% | rising | Pakistan hosts back-channel talks as Iran stays clear of direct US meetings |
| 2026-04-24 | 8% | rising | Naval brinkmanship replaces diplomacy as Hormuz standoff hardens both sides' positions |
| 2026-04-23 | 5% | falling | Military escalation in Hormuz overwhelms diplomatic channel as Trump orders lethal force |
| 2026-04-22 | 28% | rising | Ceasefire Extended as Iran's Internal Rifts Complicate Path to Deal |
| 2026-04-21 | 16% | falling | Islamabad talks scheduled as Iran signals negotiation preconditions; deadline expires |
| 2026-04-20 | 22% | rising | Iran Spurns Talks While U.S. Pursues Deal; Military Tensions Escalate |
| 2026-04-19 | 18% | falling | Shipping Attacks Resume as Blockade Dispute Shatters Ceasefire Talks |
| 2026-04-18 | 52% | rising | Strait Opens as Blockade Standoff Tests 7-Day Ceasefire Extension |
| 2026-04-17 | 48% | rising | Trump's Deal Push Gains Ground as Iran Skepticism and Nuclear Gaps Narrow Window |
| 2026-04-16 | 28% | falling | Ceasefire Expires in Days as Nuclear Demands Trap Both Sides |
| 2026-04-15 | 32% | falling | Trump's Fresh Talk Promise Meets Blockade Reality Check |
| 2026-04-14 | 38% | rising | Blockade squeezes Iran while second round talks inch toward scheduling |
| 2026-04-13 | 6% | falling | Military Blockade Replaces Diplomacy as Peace Talks Collapse; Mediators Scramble |
| 2026-04-12 | 15% | falling | Trump blockade hardens Iran standoff as diplomatic window narrows |
| 2026-04-11 | 32% | rising | Marathon talks fail on core issues but both sides signal intent to resume negotiations |
| 2026-04-10 | 28% | falling | Islamabad talks proceed amid mutual violations and shipping deadlock |
| 2026-04-09 | 35% | falling | Ceasefire crumbles as Iran and US clash over what agreement actually covers |
| 2026-04-08 | 42% | rising | Two-week pause holds but Strait of Hormuz dispute threatens fragile accord |
| 2026-04-07 | 5% | falling | Trump rejects Iran's peace plan as ceasefire masks structural impasse |
| 2026-04-06 | 8% | falling | Trump's midnight deadline looms as Iran rejects ceasefire frameworks |
| 2026-04-05 | 12% | falling | Mediation frantic as Trump's maximalist demands collide with Iran's reparations demand |
| 2026-04-04 | 18% | falling | Iran's Defiance Hardens as Trump's 48-Hour Ultimatum Narrows Diplomatic Window |
| 2026-04-03 | 28% | falling | Strike wounding peace broker deepens US policy rifts as diplomatic track falters |
| 2026-04-02 | 38% | falling | Trump's Stone Age Ultimatum Clashes With Iran's Tentative Peace Signals |
| 2026-04-01 | 42% | — | Hormuz reopening emerges as ceasefire linchpin amid credibility disputes |