Iran Peace Deal Probability Archive: All Daily Estimates
Every day since we started tracking, with the probability, trend direction, and headline. Click any date for the full analysis and source articles.
| Date | ProbabilityProb. | Trend | Headline |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-18 | 6% | falling | Trump escalates threats as Iran ceasefire talks collapse into military standoff |
| 2026-05-17 | 8% | falling | Trump threatens 'Operation Sledgehammer' as Iran, US abandon negotiation posture |
| 2026-05-16 | 12% | falling | Lebanon ceasefire holds but Iran rejects US terms; Hormuz tensions spike |
| 2026-05-15 | 4% | falling | Ship seizures near Hormuz escalate as Trump-Iran diplomacy collapses into military posturing |
| 2026-05-14 | 5% | falling | Iran vows defiance as Trump extends ultimatum; talks remain functionally dead |
| 2026-05-13 | 6% | falling | Trump rejects Iran proposal as ceasefire enters critical failure phase |
| 2026-05-12 | 8% | falling | Trump's 'life support' language signals ceasefire collapse as Iran digs in |
| 2026-05-11 | 16% | falling | Trump rejects Iran offer; gap widens as Hormuz blockade hardens positions |
| 2026-05-10 | 32% | falling | Month-long ceasefire holds but Iran deflects on deal, messaging suggests prolonged stalemate |
| 2026-05-09 | 28% | falling | US fires on tankers as Iran delays response, pushing deal into uncertainty |
| 2026-05-08 | 38% | falling | Ceasefire frays as US and Iran exchange fire despite deal framework talks |
| 2026-05-07 | 52% | rising | Iran reviewing US peace proposal as both sides inch toward one-page deal memo |
| 2026-05-06 | 42% | rising | Trump halts strikes as Iran reviews deal, but coercion clouds durable consensus |
| 2026-05-05 | 12% | falling | Ceasefire fragments as Iran tests US restraint in Hormuz corridor |
| 2026-05-04 | 19% | falling | Iran's peace bid stalls as US military operations undermine diplomatic window |
| 2026-05-03 | 14% | falling | Negotiations stall as Trump dismisses Iran plan; no counter-offer signals talks in limbo |
| 2026-05-02 | 18% | falling | Trump rejects Iran proposal as mutual demands widen; diplomacy persists but stalled |
| 2026-05-01 | 22% | falling | Khamenei's defiant stance hardens as Trump blockade strategy leaves little room for compromise |
| 2026-04-30 | 28% | rising | Ceasefire holds but Trump's nuclear demands block Iran's phased path forward |
| 2026-04-29 | 24% | rising | Trump considers Iran's sequencing offer as nuclear sticking point persists |
| 2026-04-28 | 18% | rising | Iran's Hormuz proposal meets swift US rejection; mediators seek revised terms |
| 2026-04-27 | 12% | falling | Trump's Envoy Pullback Deepens Impasse as Iran Seeks Alternative Mediators |
| 2026-04-26 | 8% | falling | Trump envoys pulled from Pakistan as Iran-US preconditions deadlock deepens |
| 2026-04-25 | 24% | rising | Pakistan hosts back-channel talks as Iran stays clear of direct US meetings |
| 2026-04-24 | 8% | falling | Naval brinkmanship replaces diplomacy as Hormuz standoff hardens both sides' positions |
| 2026-04-23 | 5% | falling | Military escalation in Hormuz overwhelms diplomatic channel as Trump orders lethal force |
| 2026-04-22 | 28% | rising | Ceasefire Extended as Iran's Internal Rifts Complicate Path to Deal |
| 2026-04-21 | 16% | falling | Islamabad talks scheduled as Iran signals negotiation preconditions; deadline expires |
| 2026-04-20 | 22% | falling | Iran Spurns Talks While U.S. Pursues Deal; Military Tensions Escalate |
| 2026-04-19 | 18% | falling | Shipping Attacks Resume as Blockade Dispute Shatters Ceasefire Talks |
| 2026-04-18 | 52% | rising | Strait Opens as Blockade Standoff Tests 7-Day Ceasefire Extension |
| 2026-04-17 | 48% | rising | Trump's Deal Push Gains Ground as Iran Skepticism and Nuclear Gaps Narrow Window |
| 2026-04-16 | 28% | falling | Ceasefire Expires in Days as Nuclear Demands Trap Both Sides |
| 2026-04-15 | 32% | falling | Trump's Fresh Talk Promise Meets Blockade Reality Check |
| 2026-04-14 | 38% | rising | Blockade squeezes Iran while second round talks inch toward scheduling |
| 2026-04-13 | 6% | falling | Military Blockade Replaces Diplomacy as Peace Talks Collapse; Mediators Scramble |
| 2026-04-12 | 15% | falling | Trump blockade hardens Iran standoff as diplomatic window narrows |
| 2026-04-11 | 32% | rising | Marathon talks fail on core issues but both sides signal intent to resume negotiations |
| 2026-04-10 | 28% | falling | Islamabad talks proceed amid mutual violations and shipping deadlock |
| 2026-04-09 | 35% | falling | Ceasefire crumbles as Iran and US clash over what agreement actually covers |
| 2026-04-08 | 42% | rising | Two-week pause holds but Strait of Hormuz dispute threatens fragile accord |
| 2026-04-07 | 5% | falling | Trump rejects Iran's peace plan as ceasefire masks structural impasse |
| 2026-04-06 | 8% | falling | Trump's midnight deadline looms as Iran rejects ceasefire frameworks |
| 2026-04-05 | 12% | falling | Mediation frantic as Trump's maximalist demands collide with Iran's reparations demand |
| 2026-04-04 | 18% | falling | Iran's Defiance Hardens as Trump's 48-Hour Ultimatum Narrows Diplomatic Window |
| 2026-04-03 | 28% | falling | Strike wounding peace broker deepens US policy rifts as diplomatic track falters |
| 2026-04-02 | 38% | falling | Trump's Stone Age Ultimatum Clashes With Iran's Tentative Peace Signals |
| 2026-04-01 | 42% | — | Hormuz reopening emerges as ceasefire linchpin amid credibility disputes |