November 10, 2026
Iran peace deal probability
45%
↑ rising

Trump says talks could stop strikes; military stays ready; gaps stay wide

Key Factors

Iran Peace Deal Analysis for November 10, 2026

Trump said Monday he wants a peaceful settlement. He told Reuters that Qatar and Saudi Arabia both seek one too. He said the US military stands ready but will hold fire if negotiations keep moving. He called a return to major strikes 'highly unlikely' if talks advance. Qatar's prime minister is meeting with Trump. JD Vance continues pushing behind the scenes for a ceasefire deal.

But the situation remains tense. Trump is keeping US forces 'locked and loaded' while launching targeted strikes on Iranian assets over the weekend. Secretary of State Rubio rejected what he called 'outrageous' Iranian demands and publicly expressed doubt that any deal is achievable. Iran fired on tankers near Hormuz and struck targets in Iraq. The two-day diplomatic ultimatum Iran issued over the weekend may have already passed or be close to expiring.

Trump conditioning further attacks on negotiation progress is new. It removes the threat of unilateral escalation if talks simply continue. Qatar's mediation and Vance's push against Rubio's harder line both create room for movement. Neither side has budged on core terms. The US wants Iran to halt attacks on shipping and militias. Iran wants sanctions relief and an end to strikes. Watch whether Iran extends its ultimatum or walks away after it expires.

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