July 11, 2026
Iran peace deal probability
8%
↑ rising

Trump keeps door cracked open, but strikes continue near Hormuz

Key Factors

Iran Peace Deal Analysis for July 11, 2026

Trump has sent contradictory signals in the past 48 hours. He declared the ceasefire dead and threatened to "completely decimate and destroy" Iran if he is assassinated. At the same time, he said the US will continue negotiating and claimed Iran asked to resume talks. Right now, the war is active but both sides remain willing to talk.

Iranian attacks on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz triggered the shift. The US struck back, Iran fired missiles in response, and Trump used this to scrap the ceasefire. Yet Trump kept the door open by indicating talks could restart even as military exchanges continue. Iran is also caught between two moves: pushing back against US pressure while showing interest in talks if the terms change.

The next test comes soon. The US is now demanding that Iran issue a public statement saying the Strait of Hormuz stays open to all traffic. This saves face for Trump but humiliates Tehran. If Iran refuses, talks end. If Iran agrees, a narrower window opens to discuss a larger deal. Both sides are fighting and negotiating at the same time, which can shift quickly toward either outcome.

Source Articles