Trump declares Iran ceasefire dead; military exchanges intensify near Hormuz

Iran Peace Deal Analysis for July 10, 2026

The US-Iran peace process has collapsed into active warfare. Trump declared the ceasefire 'over' and called negotiations a 'waste of time' on Wednesday. The US military launched strikes on Iranian targets for the second consecutive night Thursday. Iran vowed to retaliate with 'fearless' attacks on American bases. Ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has plummeted as tanker attacks spike the risk premium on oil.

Trump sent contradictory messages on Thursday morning, claiming Iran had called to make a deal while adding it was unclear whether the war had restarted. By Wednesday he had already written off talks entirely. Military strikes from both sides continue. Iran halted ceasefire talks and closed the Strait of Hormuz to US-linked vessels. The death of Supreme Leader Khamenei, announced in the past 24 hours, adds institutional instability to Tehran's decision-making at a critical moment.

The Strait of Hormuz became the breaking point. Iran attacked tankers over the past week while the US intensified coastal strikes along the waterway. Neither side backed down from this flashpoint. Trump has abandoned near-final deals quickly when his patience wore thin or military commanders pushed for escalation. Ships are rerouting and energy markets are reacting. The economic cost of continued fighting is climbing fast, but neither government has historically moved toward compromise over costs alone.