Trump declares ceasefire over; US and Iran trade strikes for second day

Iran Peace Deal Analysis for July 9, 2026

A ceasefire that held for weeks collapsed overnight. Trump announced it was finished and called negotiations a waste of time. The US launched strikes on Iranian military targets, and Iran fired back at American bases and ships in the Gulf. By Thursday morning, both sides were deep into a second round of exchanges.

Iranian attacks on tanker ships in the Strait of Hormuz broke the ceasefire. The US responded by revoking Iran's oil sales permits and striking Iranian military sites. Trump then went public with his decision to end ceasefire talks. He called Iranian leaders scum and threatened more strikes that same night. Iran's response was defiant. Tehran said it would keep attacking US positions and that breaking promises would no longer come without a price.

The collapse was fast and intense. Trump made a choice to end talks, announced it, and ordered strikes the same day. Iran followed suit within hours. Both sides are committed to escalation rather than looking for an off-ramp. Trump has already ordered a second wave of strikes and threatened a third. Iran has warned of fearless retaliation. Neither government is using language of negotiation or de-escalation.

For a peace deal to happen in the next 30 days, one side would need to reverse course and propose talks the other side would accept. Given how quickly this escalated and Trump's explicit rejection of negotiations, that is not credible in this timeframe.