Iran expands attacks on Gulf after US strikes; diplomacy labeled futile

Iran Peace Deal Analysis for July 13, 2026

The past 72 hours have destroyed the June peace deal. Trump declared the ceasefire dead on July 10. Both sides have escalated military operations dramatically since then. The US launched multiple strike waves on Iranian positions and near the Strait of Hormuz. Iran responded by attacking US bases and also targets in Bahrain, Kuwait, and Jordan, spreading the conflict far beyond US-Iran fighting.

The Strait of Hormuz is now the main flashpoint. Trump's original agreement had a vague clause about free passage. Neither side trusts the other's interpretation. Iran claims the strait is closed. The US insists it remains open. This dispute affects global oil flows directly. It touches the economic interests of every Gulf state. When Iran began blocking or threatening shipping, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Kuwait moved into active conflict zones they had tried to avoid.

Diplomacy has stalled. Iranian officials now call peace efforts futile after what they view as repeated US violations of the deal's terms. Trump has hinted at continued talks and claimed Iran requested to resume negotiations. His own actions tell a different story. He has ordered fresh strikes to hold Iranian forces accountable. This contradicts any genuine pause. The administration is split internally. Trump leaves the door open while Defense Secretary Hegseth and other officials vow escalation. Former Trump aides blame Vice President Vance for the deal's failure. Internal finger-pointing is replacing coherent strategy.

For talks to restart, Iran would need assurance the US will enforce its own commitments. That assurance does not exist. Trump's unpredictability, hawkish cabinet members, and military momentum all make a negotiated pause in the next 30 days extremely unlikely. The only way forward requires one side to absorb significant losses and step back unilaterally. Neither government is positioned to do that politically.